Mets, Braves face off in fight for the division title

September 14, 2009

The facts are clear and plain. The New York Mets hold a 5.5 game lead over the second place Atlanta Braves. The Mets have 18 games left to play, the Braves have 19. They will face each other six more times, including a three game set in Atlanta starting Tuesday the 15th.

To quote Mr. Rogers, "Can you say crucial?"

The Braves made it a little harder on themselves by splitting their games last week (3-3) while the Mets won 4 and dropped two to add another game to their lead. With three weeks left the Braves are going to have to average a 2 game swing in their favor each week in order to catch the boys of New York.

Obviously, the games they go head to head are the most vital to either team's chances of winning the division. But, as Bobby Cox, Braves manager, likes to say: at this time of the season they are all important.

The Braves hold a bit of an edge (8-4) in the season series so far against the Mets. But in the other games remaining, the Mets appear to hold a slight advantage over Atlanta's remaining schedule.

The Mets play 6 games against Washington and they lead their season series 7 games to 5 so far; 3 games are left against Florida and they're 8-4 against the Marlins. They close the season at home against Houston, who they haven't beaten yet this year, losing 3 to them back in July.

Meanwhile the Braves will go 3 games against Philadelphia, who the Braves trail in their series 7-8; 6 games against Washington, tho the Braves lead 8 games to 3; The Braves have 3 games left against the Marlins, who the Braves also trail 7-8. Overall: advantage Mets.

Ah, you may say, the Braves will have a greater home field advantage, playing 13 remaining games at home with 6 on the road while the Mets play 9 each at home and away. The problem with home field advantage is that the Braves have played only .500 ball (34-34) at home and are 41-28 (.594) on the road. The Mets are 43-26, a blistering .623 at home and 37-32 (.536) on the road. Again, advantage goes to the Mets.

So while most the numbers seem to favor New York, the games are still played on the field, not in the season history books. So, let's watch closely to see how the war in the East plays out.